Auras of Danger, Floor Spacing and Shot Creation
Kyle, you shoot. Josh not so much. Having guys who can space the floor is at the same time both underrated and overrated in today's NBA. The recent rise to prominence of "Three and D" wing players - guys who can play effective defense but have offensive skillsets limited to shooting spot up 3s and possibly finishing in transition - has players occupying what was a Moneyball-like area of exploitable market inefficiency almost overrated.
The reason it was important to find these guys is that a team could get good defense and efficient complimentary offense a cut rate price by not having to pay the premium which always has been (and to some degree likely always will be) attached to guys who can "get their own shot." Spot up shooting and the ability and willingness to do defensive dirty work are skills which are less rare than the ability to make things happen from nothing. To a degree, this should make the "3D" wings somewhat fungible. However, individual players who have successfully filled this role might be overrated to a degree. I don't think this is the market over-correcting so much as a mild misevaluation of the ability to properly value the "D" part and the degree to which the "3" part is consistent.
One analogy I've recently seen is to baseball relievers, and I think that's instructive if not quite perfect. Some guys (KOJI!) can be pantheon level one year after never approaching that level before and not repeating it after. But Mariano Rivera was for ever. As with Shane Battier and Bruce Bowen - two guys who not only were inarguably plus defenders but also fairly consistent shooters over their careers (at least before Battier's body fell apart the last two years. Guarding the David Wests of the world is doing him no favors on that front). So now teams are throwing multi-year guaranteed money at MLE levels at Danny Green, Martell Webster, Chris Copeland, etc. Green has struggled out of the gate this year, and lost minutes to Marco Belinelli (who is shooting the ball great so far, MoML); Webster has been supplanted by Trevor Ariza who is shooting the hell out of the ball (this year); Copeland can't get off the bench in Indy despite their DESPERATE need for another wing player. Two years ago, it was Dorrell Wright, and in years before that it's been Anthony Morrow, Rasual Butler, and Ariza (again) among others. This year-to-year variation (combined with the difficulty in both assessing and predicting individual defensive contributions) make longer term contracts for these guys inherently risky.
However, while individual proponents of the "3&D" role might have become overrated and/or overpaid, the value of shooting, floor spacing, needing to be guarded sometimes gets lost in the shuffle. This happens even though we recognize and are reminded of it's importance regularly. The Grizzlies have a lower ceiling than their defense and interior talent would suggest because they start one guy who can space the floor. This Pistons have been significantly better on offense when either Josh Smith or Greg Monroe shares the floor with Andre Drummond than when both do (neat sight for checking lineup combos here). On the individual level, players like Luc Richard Mbah a Moute can't get on the floor because the value they bring on defense is arguably eclipsed by the value their (lack of ) offense takes away on the other end.
One analogy I've recently seen is to baseball relievers, and I think that's instructive if not quite perfect. Some guys (KOJI!) can be pantheon level one year after never approaching that level before and not repeating it after. But Mariano Rivera was for ever. As with Shane Battier and Bruce Bowen - two guys who not only were inarguably plus defenders but also fairly consistent shooters over their careers (at least before Battier's body fell apart the last two years. Guarding the David Wests of the world is doing him no favors on that front). So now teams are throwing multi-year guaranteed money at MLE levels at Danny Green, Martell Webster, Chris Copeland, etc. Green has struggled out of the gate this year, and lost minutes to Marco Belinelli (who is shooting the ball great so far, MoML); Webster has been supplanted by Trevor Ariza who is shooting the hell out of the ball (this year); Copeland can't get off the bench in Indy despite their DESPERATE need for another wing player. Two years ago, it was Dorrell Wright, and in years before that it's been Anthony Morrow, Rasual Butler, and Ariza (again) among others. This year-to-year variation (combined with the difficulty in both assessing and predicting individual defensive contributions) make longer term contracts for these guys inherently risky.
However, while individual proponents of the "3&D" role might have become overrated and/or overpaid, the value of shooting, floor spacing, needing to be guarded sometimes gets lost in the shuffle. This happens even though we recognize and are reminded of it's importance regularly. The Grizzlies have a lower ceiling than their defense and interior talent would suggest because they start one guy who can space the floor. This Pistons have been significantly better on offense when either Josh Smith or Greg Monroe shares the floor with Andre Drummond than when both do (neat sight for checking lineup combos here). On the individual level, players like Luc Richard Mbah a Moute can't get on the floor because the value they bring on defense is arguably eclipsed by the value their (lack of ) offense takes away on the other end.
With the intro out of the way, I wanted to give a few quick demonstrations of the threat of shooting providing offense for other players. I've talked often about how the threat of LeMarcus Aldridge can open up other areas for Portland's offense:
But the effect is even more stark when examining players who shoot the three pointer. Not is this shot worth 50% more points (and you can check my math), but to guard them, the defender needs to be further from the hoop. If the defense decides that certain players cannot left at the arc for any reason, this can wildly distort a team's defensive concept:
Earlier this year, Orlando tried to shut down WOH muse Kyle Korver by having Jameer Nelson...do whatever that is on defense. Now obviously Korver is going to have a hard time getting a shot off, but Nelson is now completely incapable of offering any help. Compare his positioning above with Indiana's wings during PnR defense:
Obviously Robbie Hummel and Corey Brewer are not Kyle Korver in terms of dangers from 3, and this is demonstrated by the additional degree to which Paul George and Orlando Johnson can protect the paint if needed on this play. But the ability of shooters to affect the defense is not limited to simple spot ups. In this play, Korver gets Paul Millsap a layup despite never touching the ball:
If this play is being run for anyone else on the Hawks, Millsap doesn't get the easy score. But Korver's ability to shoot forces the defense to react to him before he even catches the ball. By comparison the "big" Pistons lineup with Drummond, Monroe and Smith on the floor runs into problems because only one of the three can occupy their most effective areas on the low post. This allows defenders to simply sit in the paint and take away any chance of high efficiency looks:
It is extremely unusual for an NBA player be unguarded by design in the strong side corner as seen at the start of the play, and it is clear how difficult having the extra defender essentially zoning the paint makes it for the offense to get easy baskets. Additionally, since Brewer is not forced to close out on Smith, the chances of Smith getting into the paint for a high value shot or drawing a foul or finding a teammate for a dunk are basically eliminated.
This does not mean Smith, Drummond or Monroe are not or cannot be positive offensive players. But since none of them need to be guarded outside of the paint, the three of them on the floor produce negative synergy. Replace Smith in that corner with Korver, or even someone who at least needs to be respected like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and all of a sudden plays are there to be made:
This does not mean Smith, Drummond or Monroe are not or cannot be positive offensive players. But since none of them need to be guarded outside of the paint, the three of them on the floor produce negative synergy. Replace Smith in that corner with Korver, or even someone who at least needs to be respected like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and all of a sudden plays are there to be made:
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