You Show Them Some Other Kind of Game, That's The Game They'll Play

Where DOES Offense Happen?

Offense taken

One of the main themes of this blog is intended to be a refutation of the opinion that in the NBA, offense simply happens.  The notion that players are more or less fungible production functions which can simply be pieced together and aggregate at the some of their parts is, I believe, pernicious to our ability to examine, evaluate and weigh individual players.

Even a cursory examination demonstrates this to be a false understanding.  Take a player like mascot Kyle Korver. Not to beat a dead horse, but his main skill is catching the ball and shooting it.  Forcing him to do anything else is bad for the offense and good for the defense. However, if he is able to catch and shoot, his attempts are among the most valuable in the league.  The defense being aware of this attempts to prevent him from doing so, sometimes going to rather extreme lengths  in this regard.

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What is meant by the commonly commentated phrase "ability to break down the defense" is an aptitude to do things on the court which might cause Korver's defender to leave him and help into the lane, or at least be drawn out of position enough to get hit with a pick, freeing up Kyle to shoot. This can take the form of isolation dribble drives, pick and rolls and yes, even post ups. Basically, the "best" shots are the ones you need to work the hardest to get.

We all know this more or less intuitively, but I've got numbers:

This chart shows the percentages of possessions "used" by various types of plays, as compared to the percentage of total points scored as a result of each over the 4 seasons previous to this one. As a reminder, Synergy (where I pulled the data) counts a possession as used if a player shoots, gets fouled in the act of shooting or turns the ball over, so the above is at best a rough approximation of the points generated from a given play type - if a player isos, beats his man, and feeds a teammate for a dunk or 3, that play will likely be recorded and credited to a cut or spot up play type. Further, the data is not perfect, as Synergy can be inconsistent with respect to how plays are coded between similar categories (12 foot face ups are sometimes isolations, sometimes post ups. The borders between a hand off and a cut or between a spot up and a screen are fuzzy, etc.)

A few things are readily apparent from the chart:

• Shots were the defense is by definition not set (transition and immediately following an offensive rebound) are very good.
• Broken plays ("Other") do not often result in positive outcomes for the offense
• Attacking a set defense with the ball and the intention to score yourself is inefficient.  The three categories where the player who initiates the play finishes it (Isolation, P&R ball-handler, Post ups) all consume a greater percentage of possessions than points they generate.
• Situations where a player is either moving or finding space without the ball and receives a pass are far more efficient ways of scoring in the half court, as the P&R Roll man, spot up shooters and cutters all generate more points than their percentage of possessions would indicate. 

This brings me to the central quandary of good offense - without the "bad possessions," the good possessions become impossible or at least improbable.  If an offense simply throws the ball around the perimeter (turn on your TV and watch any college game for interminable examples), they are unlikely to ever get the opportunity to catch and shoot, as the defense will be well positioned.  A team needs players who can operate in isolation, P&R and post situations to "bend" the defense to allow players to find space off the ball, to force the defense into rotations, basically to allow defenders to make mistakes.

Thus, an "isolation" isn't necessarily bad. If the floor is well spaced and the player with the ball is threatening enough off the dribble, has reasonable court vision and is willing to move the ball, good things can happen. Where iso-heavy offenses break down is when the only likely product of the isolation is a contested mid range jump shot from the ball-handler.  This is certainly the case for Cleveland, where as a result of poor shot clock management, spacing and chuck-happy personnel too many possessions end with this:

 By comparison, Portland's offense is no stranger to isolations, pick and rolls and post-ups, but those actions are done with a purpose, they are looking for better shots: 

with the ball handler shooting either as a fall back or as a result of getting a better than expected shot from the location in question, whether an Aldridge open midranger or Lillard getting all the way to the basket off of a pick and roll.