Good Set, Bad Outcome
David Lee is by any reasonable accounting an excellent offensive basketball player. Whether or not he gives it all back on defense is another question, but his cutting, passing and ability to score in traffic with either hand make him highly proficient at helping his team score the ball. I feel like that needs to be restated right off the top, because from much of the reaction to last night's Warriors/Rockets OT thriller, one would be excused for thinking he was a recent D-League call up, thrown into a a pressure packed, high-leverage situation which was above his paygrade.
Lee failed to score the ball on a crucial possession last night, and for this (and even though the Warriors ended up triumphing after the extra session) both he and coach Mark Jackson have been heavily criticized:
"Why take the ball out of Stephen Curry's hands just because Lee has a mismatch, being guarded by James Harden?" goes the chorus.
And to be fair to the naysayers, a lot of the invective directed at Jackson's overall offensive philosophy is well-earned. Cameron Purn dropped this excellent deep-dive into the Warriors' surprising mediocrity on that end of the court. The short version is that Golden States runs a lot of very simple sets which quickly devolve into shot clock-killing isolations if they don't generate a quick look.
Additionally, the Warriors as a whole (whether it is the coaching staff, just the players, or a combination of both) all too often have little respect for the value of the shot clock. In the fourth quarter last night many many of the Warriors' half court sets didn't start until 10 seconds or more had passed:
And to be fair to the naysayers, a lot of the invective directed at Jackson's overall offensive philosophy is well-earned. Cameron Purn dropped this excellent deep-dive into the Warriors' surprising mediocrity on that end of the court. The short version is that Golden States runs a lot of very simple sets which quickly devolve into shot clock-killing isolations if they don't generate a quick look.
Additionally, the Warriors as a whole (whether it is the coaching staff, just the players, or a combination of both) all too often have little respect for the value of the shot clock. In the fourth quarter last night many many of the Warriors' half court sets didn't start until 10 seconds or more had passed:
And while it's not complete cause and effect, these "slow" possessions didn't result in the best of looks, whereas by playing with slightly more urgency, the Warriors were able to generate some good early looks for Curry:
At times, the slow-developing, one-option-into-an-iso look resembled another team with much bigger problems than the Dubs, your Cleveland Cavaliers. Mike Brown, offensive guru basically admits as much about his philosophy:
“Our offense is not complex at all,” Mike Brown said.
The Cavs just faced the Sixers a few days ago, so when Brown and Hawes spoke by phone Thursday night, Hawes said he had a pretty good idea what the Cavs do.
“You probably do,” Brown told him. “What you went over in your scouting report is all we do.”
But, as fair as the general criticism of Jackson's stewardship of the Golden State attack can be, in this instance, it's misplaced. First of all, David Lee in the post is an excellent look, full stop. Per synergy sports, he averages .89 pts per possession from the post, whereas a Warriors' "planned" (i.e. not offensive rebound or transition) possession average .90, with the plays resulting in efficiency higher than a Lee post up (spot up shots and cuts) relying on the defense leaving players open away from the ball. Or to put it another way, if the defense helps towards Lee, his excellent passing allows the Warriors an even better look than his own post up. Further, Lee has a big size advantage on Harden. It's hard to imagine he's less effective than average given the matchup. Up until this point in the game, Lee had posted up 7 times vs. Houston wings and guards, and had scored 4 buckets, gotten fouled in the act twice, and missed once. While Harden is a surprisingly good post defender, given his overall defensive reputation (he currently ranks 5th among all players in allowing the fewest points per possession from the post, per Synergy, a number driven heavily by his ability to generate steals and other turnovers), you have to feel pretty good about Lee versus Harden from 8 feet and in.
Further, belying the general complaint about Jackson's inability to get the Warriors into offensive looks quickly enough, this was a 2-for-1 situation; if Golden State was able to get a shot up in around 4 seconds or less, they guaranteed themselves the last shot of the game. Despite this narrow time window, this is exactly what occurred. Absent Harden's strip, Lee would be shooting with about 31 seconds on the clock. And as it turned out, this 2-for-1 was crucial as Curry was able to answer Harden's clutch shot to force overtime.
But to return to the larger point, Golden State accomplished two important things with this set - they got the ball to a favorable spot on the floor or matchup, and they did so quickly enough to ensure the last possession. From that point, the principles of "Make or Miss League" take over and its flipping a coin. In a zero-sum game with a winner and a loser, one team will be pleased with the result and the other won't. Much like the furor over "letting LeBron James beat them" just before the All-Star break, the negative outcome in this tiny sample size of one shouldn't obscure the fact that the Warriors put themselves in possessions to make the plays most likely to win the game. Harden made a great play, but he won't make it every time, and he won't make it enough for the Warriors, or their fans, to second guess what was a good play call that happened to end poorly.
Further, belying the general complaint about Jackson's inability to get the Warriors into offensive looks quickly enough, this was a 2-for-1 situation; if Golden State was able to get a shot up in around 4 seconds or less, they guaranteed themselves the last shot of the game. Despite this narrow time window, this is exactly what occurred. Absent Harden's strip, Lee would be shooting with about 31 seconds on the clock. And as it turned out, this 2-for-1 was crucial as Curry was able to answer Harden's clutch shot to force overtime.
But to return to the larger point, Golden State accomplished two important things with this set - they got the ball to a favorable spot on the floor or matchup, and they did so quickly enough to ensure the last possession. From that point, the principles of "Make or Miss League" take over and its flipping a coin. In a zero-sum game with a winner and a loser, one team will be pleased with the result and the other won't. Much like the furor over "letting LeBron James beat them" just before the All-Star break, the negative outcome in this tiny sample size of one shouldn't obscure the fact that the Warriors put themselves in possessions to make the plays most likely to win the game. Harden made a great play, but he won't make it every time, and he won't make it enough for the Warriors, or their fans, to second guess what was a good play call that happened to end poorly.
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