Draymond Green, Harrison Barnes and the Problems Of "Tools"
Regular listeners of the podcast or followers on twitter will know that I've come full circle on the issue of Draymond Green and Harrison Barnes. Green is simply a substantially more effective player than Barnes. Yet people, most importantly and frustratingly Warriors coach Mark Jackson don't see it that way. Despite genuinely poor results in his assigned role as primary scorer off the bench, the chances and excuses for Barnes pile up. Is it a bad role for him? Is he hurt? Is it just a slump? People seem unwilling to countenance the possibility that he just might be not good at NBA basketball.
It's easy to understand why. Barnes looks the part of an NBA swingman, with broad shoulders and an explosive gait. Green, despite having literally worked his ass off to get in NBA shape still has a more than passing resemblance to the player known by his Michigan State teammates as "The Dancing Bear".
But to use a quote attributed to another Bay Area sports legend, "we're not selling jeans here." Billy Beane, as quoted in "Moneyball", is telling his scouts that he cares far more about what potential acquisitions and draft picks produce than how well they fill out a uniform, and Jackson would be wise to take note.
Despite his high school pedigree, the case for Barnes breaks down fairly quickly under careful observation. What looks at first glance like a prototypical wreckingball two guard out of the Mitch Richmond mold is revealed to be something else entirely, and far less valuable: a tweener. Barnes is not by any stretch a smooth ballhandler, Warrior's blogger Evan Zamir recently compared his open floor dribbling akin to watching some one "try to bounce a salmon'. So if he can't really dribble, he's not a two guard. But he's not a new age 3-and-D small forward either. He has neither the extremely long arms of the Trevor Ariza or Kawhi Leonard types nor is he a particularly smooth catch-and-shoot player. Barnes is a respectable shooter from deep, but has a relatively slow release and not much elevation on his deep looks, meaning he requires time, space and an on target pass for accuracy.
Green, on the other hand, looks like the guy who always seems to be on the team that wins for an hour straight in a pickup game and you're not sure how. He can't really shoot, (his TS is .477 for the season which is actually a substantial improvement from last year, though his 33% from 3 and penchant for timely buckets in big spots means you can't simply ignore him on the perimeter), and turns the ball over a fair amount.
On the other hand, even if you knew nothing of any advanced metrics, you could intuit that Green can defend. Given his body type and offensive stats, he simply wouldn't be in the league if he couldn't. But it goes further than simply being a competent defender. Green can passably defend 4 positions on the floor, and having this sort of versatility while not being completely useless on offense is a huge boon towards winning the matchup game - Green's versatility, not unlike though to a lesser degree than that of Andre Iguodala allows the Warriors to play the game at a pace and style of their choosing rather than have their lineup dictated by the opponent. (The fact that Jackson routinely squanders this advantage is one of the reasons he might be one of Golden State's main weaknesses heading into the playoffs.)
But advanced metrics also think highly of Green defensively, (a solid positive in defensive RAPM per Talking Practice, despite his status as a second year player hurting him slightly under that methodology.) He's an extremely solid rebounder for a player who spends most of his time on the wing, and is second to Shane Battier in both percentage of shots contested at the rim and overall rim protection value among wings (though both have spent time at PF in small lineups).
To make a long story short, Green's defensive value and versatility combined with Barnes' inability to function as a primary scorer with Golden State's 2nd unit mean that Green has been a far superior player this season. Many take this to mean that Barnes just needs a change of scenery and/or role to reach his "true" talents. While there is definitely something to this in terms of Jackson asking Barnes to become a post up or isolation scorer, it also reeks of excuse making for a guy with such highly touted "talent".
But to use a quote attributed to another Bay Area sports legend, "we're not selling jeans here." Billy Beane, as quoted in "Moneyball", is telling his scouts that he cares far more about what potential acquisitions and draft picks produce than how well they fill out a uniform, and Jackson would be wise to take note.
Despite his high school pedigree, the case for Barnes breaks down fairly quickly under careful observation. What looks at first glance like a prototypical wreckingball two guard out of the Mitch Richmond mold is revealed to be something else entirely, and far less valuable: a tweener. Barnes is not by any stretch a smooth ballhandler, Warrior's blogger Evan Zamir recently compared his open floor dribbling akin to watching some one "try to bounce a salmon'. So if he can't really dribble, he's not a two guard. But he's not a new age 3-and-D small forward either. He has neither the extremely long arms of the Trevor Ariza or Kawhi Leonard types nor is he a particularly smooth catch-and-shoot player. Barnes is a respectable shooter from deep, but has a relatively slow release and not much elevation on his deep looks, meaning he requires time, space and an on target pass for accuracy.
Green, on the other hand, looks like the guy who always seems to be on the team that wins for an hour straight in a pickup game and you're not sure how. He can't really shoot, (his TS is .477 for the season which is actually a substantial improvement from last year, though his 33% from 3 and penchant for timely buckets in big spots means you can't simply ignore him on the perimeter), and turns the ball over a fair amount.
On the other hand, even if you knew nothing of any advanced metrics, you could intuit that Green can defend. Given his body type and offensive stats, he simply wouldn't be in the league if he couldn't. But it goes further than simply being a competent defender. Green can passably defend 4 positions on the floor, and having this sort of versatility while not being completely useless on offense is a huge boon towards winning the matchup game - Green's versatility, not unlike though to a lesser degree than that of Andre Iguodala allows the Warriors to play the game at a pace and style of their choosing rather than have their lineup dictated by the opponent. (The fact that Jackson routinely squanders this advantage is one of the reasons he might be one of Golden State's main weaknesses heading into the playoffs.)
But advanced metrics also think highly of Green defensively, (a solid positive in defensive RAPM per Talking Practice, despite his status as a second year player hurting him slightly under that methodology.) He's an extremely solid rebounder for a player who spends most of his time on the wing, and is second to Shane Battier in both percentage of shots contested at the rim and overall rim protection value among wings (though both have spent time at PF in small lineups).
To make a long story short, Green's defensive value and versatility combined with Barnes' inability to function as a primary scorer with Golden State's 2nd unit mean that Green has been a far superior player this season. Many take this to mean that Barnes just needs a change of scenery and/or role to reach his "true" talents. While there is definitely something to this in terms of Jackson asking Barnes to become a post up or isolation scorer, it also reeks of excuse making for a guy with such highly touted "talent".
Green and Barnes provide a decent comparison in terms of looking past "talent" and measurables towards sheer ability to play. Much like (though to a lesser extent as Green's never sniffing an All Star team let alone the Hall of Fame) the example of Paul Pierce in terms of a guy who may not look like the best athlete, but can just play, Draymond is decisive on the court in ways that Barnes just isn't. Again, some of this may be nagging injuries or loss of confidence affecting Barnes. But some of it is also who he is as a player.
Here's an example of Barnes in what should be an advantageous position - catching the ball at the arc with Kyle Korver closing out on him:
Here's an example of Barnes in what should be an advantageous position - catching the ball at the arc with Kyle Korver closing out on him:
Instead of attacking quickly, he faces Korver up before driving into traffic. Now here is Green reacting to a similar close out spot:
Instead of waiting to beat his man one-on-one, Green simply goes, beating one of the Morrii off the dribble before setting up Marreesse Speights with a nice dish for a lay in. Freezing the images at the moment of the catch illustrates the difference:
Barnes is catching and going into a mechanical, pre-programmed series of "fundamental" moves from a jab step series. Green is just going because he knows the lane is open for him. Despite his undoubtedly greater physical gifts, Barnes' play in these situations often has a the feel of a robot progressing through a routine. Given that his play at North Carolina was plagued by this same fault (and in fact his path to the NBA has seemed calculated from the moment he got to Chapel Hill), it's worth asking whether this is a crisis of confidence causing uncertainty, or if this is just who he is as a player.
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