Jrue Holiday and Turning the Corner (Or Not)
Point Guards and Offense Creation (part one)
The Pelicans came into this season with high hopes, counting on an improved and more experienced Anthony Davis, a healthy Eric Gordon, the addition of Tyreke Evans and the "upgrade" (note possible scare quotes) at point guard from Grevis Vasquez to all-star Jrue Holiday at the point to make a serious playoff run. Despite a ridiculous early season from Davis, the 'Cans have been a mild disappointment, starting 5-6 despite a fairly soft early schedule (of their opponents only the Pacers and possibly Grizzlies look like playoff teams).
More concerning than just the record has been the apparent stagnation of the team's offense, a supposed strength coming into the season. Some of this lackluster play can be attributed to fitting all the new pieces together and the fact the Ryan Anderson missed the first 9 games of the season. (With two "get healthy" games at home vs. the defensively challenged Sixers and Jazz, the team's offense is actually 6th in the league in PPP, but that number is hugely skewed by the 134 they hung on the Sixers in a game that was over before the first TV timeout of the 2nd half.)
But digging beneath the top line numbers were some worrying trends. They remain dead last in 3's attempted. The half-court offense which on paper looked dynamic with Holiday, Gordon and Evans all able to initiate from the perimeter, has been stagnant and ineffective in breaking down defenses. Casually watching several of their games, I began to think a major cause of this malaise was Holiday. Jrue was always likely to suffer some regression this season, at least statistically. Despite his All-Star selection last year, he wasn't an especially effective player. Rather, he was allowed to pile up bulk stats in big minutes on a woeful team that needed somebody to use all those possessions with no other real creators on the roster. And despite this opportunity, he only managed to post a 16.7 PER, barely above league average of 15, despite PER being a stat that explicitly rewards bulk whoredom. Nobody really noticed his barely above-averageness because Philly wasn't just bad; they were depressing what with the Bynum trade blowing up in their faces. So people just looked at his box score nodded appreciatively and moved on as they certainly weren't going to watch or analyze that garbage fire.
However, I at least thought he'd be as effective as Vasquez was last year, and probably moreso given the increased talent on the roster. Sadly, this has yet to be the case, as he has not provided either the playmaking or the scoring expected. Specifically, his seeming inability to beat his man off the dribble and get penetration into the lane is frustrating. Without direct access to the SportVU data, this is difficult to quantify, but let's start here:
But digging beneath the top line numbers were some worrying trends. They remain dead last in 3's attempted. The half-court offense which on paper looked dynamic with Holiday, Gordon and Evans all able to initiate from the perimeter, has been stagnant and ineffective in breaking down defenses. Casually watching several of their games, I began to think a major cause of this malaise was Holiday. Jrue was always likely to suffer some regression this season, at least statistically. Despite his All-Star selection last year, he wasn't an especially effective player. Rather, he was allowed to pile up bulk stats in big minutes on a woeful team that needed somebody to use all those possessions with no other real creators on the roster. And despite this opportunity, he only managed to post a 16.7 PER, barely above league average of 15, despite PER being a stat that explicitly rewards bulk whoredom. Nobody really noticed his barely above-averageness because Philly wasn't just bad; they were depressing what with the Bynum trade blowing up in their faces. So people just looked at his box score nodded appreciatively and moved on as they certainly weren't going to watch or analyze that garbage fire.
However, I at least thought he'd be as effective as Vasquez was last year, and probably moreso given the increased talent on the roster. Sadly, this has yet to be the case, as he has not provided either the playmaking or the scoring expected. Specifically, his seeming inability to beat his man off the dribble and get penetration into the lane is frustrating. Without direct access to the SportVU data, this is difficult to quantify, but let's start here:
Holiday is 17th in the league in "drives per game" - defined as receiving the ball more than 20 feet from the hoop and dribbling to within 10, with fast break opportunities excluded. Now, 17th doesn't sound that bad, except when you note that the 16 players ahead of him and 23 of the top 25 are either point guards or in the case of Evan Turner and Gordon Hayward, the primary offensive initiators on their respective teams. Sub 30 MPG players Evans, Ramon Sessions and Isaiah Thomas all rank ahead of Holiday. Now while this certainly isn't fatal to Holiday's creation ability (Chris Paul and John Wall are not in the top 25 either for example), he's clearly not living in the paint like some point guards. Further, according to the SportVU trackers, Holiday, he's also 18th in "time of possession", but every player ahead of him and about a dozen or so with less ToP have more over midcourt (that is offensive end) touches. Not only are a lower proportion of his shots coming in the paint (17% this season compared to 26% in 2011-12 per 82Games), he's scoring at a much lower rate when he does get to the paint (.409efg% down from .586efg% in the paint and a ghastly .386fg% at the rim down from .506fg% per NBA.com) and This combination of stats, I think, comports with my impression that he has the ball in his hands a lot without necessarily going anywhere useful with it.
In searching for possible explanations, the negatives on Holiday coming into the league included his athleticism, explosiveness and ability to get into the lane and to the line. Further, he often "wast[ed] dribbles on the perimeter, killing the flow of the offense."
Watching the Pels, one can see those scouting notes play out. The lack of aggressiveness off the dribble is apparent both in the half court:
In searching for possible explanations, the negatives on Holiday coming into the league included his athleticism, explosiveness and ability to get into the lane and to the line. Further, he often "wast[ed] dribbles on the perimeter, killing the flow of the offense."
Watching the Pels, one can see those scouting notes play out. The lack of aggressiveness off the dribble is apparent both in the half court:
and in transition:
Sometimes even on the same possession. Here, Holiday has the opportunity to attack both in transition and in the half court and does neither:
Certainly, a point guard playing under control and not forcing penetration in bad spots is desirable. But, Jrue is still an extremely high turnover player, averaging 3.7 per game at the moment. Probing and playing under control requires a degree of elusiveness and change-of-pace. Holiday is not so much changing pace as always moving at a jog. Thus, he is nonthreatening. Defenders can attack him when he has the ball, rather than vice versa:
For a comparison of a guard using a bit of trickeration to create some offense in a similar spot, see this from Eric Maynor, a guard of similar style if not comparable ability to Holiday:
To be fair to Holiday, he does have some of this slipperiness in his arsenal, for example on this sweet move on Chris Kaman. In the last 2 games (which coincide with Anderson's return) he has started to get a little more of these stutters and feints back into his repertoire. Further mitigating circumstances include some poor spacing and/or personnel positioning from New Orleans overall offense:
And not to make Randerson sound like the second coming, but his presence on the floor can serve to make some of these decisions look wiser:
So you can say it's been a rocky start to Holiday's New Orleans career. I'll revisit later in the season to see if the team has gelled better with time and Anderson, as well as whether Holiday has increased his aggression of the dribble.
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