Blake Griffin and DeMarcus Cousins Stepping Up (part 3)
Part One - Part Two
Since I last looked at the Blake Griffin and DeMarcus Cousins comparison a month ago, a funny thing happened: they both started balling out all over the place. My thesis at that point was the DMC would be the better "primary option" as he was a more consistent one on one scorer as well as able to "bend" defenses by drawing a double team in the post.
To that point in the season, here is a snapshot of their production.
Over the period since my last post, both have upped their season production, in some cases considerably (stats through Saturday's games).
In addition to these individual improvements both have led their team to a winning percentage roughly 50 points above their season total. Going 6 -9 as Sacto has (now 7-9 with Sunday's thrashing of the Cavs) isn't great, but it's also much better than they started the year.
When Rob and I have discussed the two in the past on the podcast, one of his chief points in favor of Blake is the higher minute load carried. And in fact, earlier in the season, Blake was playing around 6 more minutes per game, 36 to 30. But from the above, Cousins has managed to cut down on his fouls and/or improve his conditioning enough to almost equalize that advantage. On the other hand, Blake has upped his offensive game almost across the board, with the biggest improvement being at the free throw line. Not only is he getting to the line almost 50% more often, but he has significantly upped his percentage, going from a liability (64.6%) to a relative strength (76.3%).
In a a development I think is related, Blake has been an absolute beast in the low post over that period - raising his overall efficiency in post up situations to 96/100poss, including getting buckets against legitimate post defenders (as opposed to just destroying mismatches, which was the case up to December.) The change appears to be based on one change - his willingness to go into the middle of the lane and seek contact. For the first 6 weeks or so of the season, teams were simply conceding a right hand drive/left shoulder jump hook to him from the left block, but he was rarely opting for that shot:
When Rob and I have discussed the two in the past on the podcast, one of his chief points in favor of Blake is the higher minute load carried. And in fact, earlier in the season, Blake was playing around 6 more minutes per game, 36 to 30. But from the above, Cousins has managed to cut down on his fouls and/or improve his conditioning enough to almost equalize that advantage. On the other hand, Blake has upped his offensive game almost across the board, with the biggest improvement being at the free throw line. Not only is he getting to the line almost 50% more often, but he has significantly upped his percentage, going from a liability (64.6%) to a relative strength (76.3%).
In a a development I think is related, Blake has been an absolute beast in the low post over that period - raising his overall efficiency in post up situations to 96/100poss, including getting buckets against legitimate post defenders (as opposed to just destroying mismatches, which was the case up to December.) The change appears to be based on one change - his willingness to go into the middle of the lane and seek contact. For the first 6 weeks or so of the season, teams were simply conceding a right hand drive/left shoulder jump hook to him from the left block, but he was rarely opting for that shot:
Being bodied up by Serge Ibaka, Blake had a jump hook or drive to the middle of the paint available but instead chose to spin baseline into an ugly, contested turnaround J:
This was fairly typical of his early season left block possessions vs. stout defenders, with the main variation being that sometimes he tossed up a pretty hideous lefty jump hook as opposed to the equally ineffective fading J.
More recently, and I would suggest aided by his willingness to get to the FT line, he has been attacking the middle of the floor and the bucket in these scenarios:
More recently, and I would suggest aided by his willingness to get to the FT line, he has been attacking the middle of the floor and the bucket in these scenarios:
Notice that this play takes place with under 2 minutes in a two point game with the Clippers needing a bucket, so basically exactly the scenario where he has been less than stellar in the past in a way that called into question his ability to be a "primary option" type of player.
Cousins has similarly upped his post scoring efficiency, up to 91/100 possessions while carrying a staggering offensive load (ranking tops among big men in my "True Usage" metric, with above average efficiency despite a fairly high TO rate). He continues to obliterate single coverage (for example, I noted his post efficiency versus the Blazers and their "never double" scheme in the teams' first two meetings. In the latest meeting a week ago, he went 3-4, and drew two shooting fouls in 6 post possessions with the only miss occurring when the Blazers finally sent help Robin Lopez's way.
More interestingly on the offensive end, Cousins has also become extremely effective as a PnR roll man since the forced insertion of Isiah Thomas into the starting lineup following the Rudy Gay trade, as he is up to a robust and well above league average 1.03 PPP in those situations. Much like Blake's increased post scoring through aggressively attacking the rim, Cousins is using the combination of his physical talents and Sacramento's increased floor balance to get to the rim as a roll man with more regularity. In a bit of a chicken-and-egg problem, early in the season, Cousins preferred to pop rather than role in part due to his own decision making but also due to the clogged nature of the lane given the poor quality of Sacramento's wing play:
More interestingly on the offensive end, Cousins has also become extremely effective as a PnR roll man since the forced insertion of Isiah Thomas into the starting lineup following the Rudy Gay trade, as he is up to a robust and well above league average 1.03 PPP in those situations. Much like Blake's increased post scoring through aggressively attacking the rim, Cousins is using the combination of his physical talents and Sacramento's increased floor balance to get to the rim as a roll man with more regularity. In a bit of a chicken-and-egg problem, early in the season, Cousins preferred to pop rather than role in part due to his own decision making but also due to the clogged nature of the lane given the poor quality of Sacramento's wing play:
Here, even if he had rolled hard to the paint, he's running into nothing but defenders and trouble given his proclivity towards turnovers especially of the offensive foul variety.
In contrast, he now has more space and more spacers around him, allowing hard rim runs:
In contrast, he now has more space and more spacers around him, allowing hard rim runs:
I'm interested to see whether the good play of both holds up over the next month or so. Griffin has a chance to showcase himself as a first option with Chris Paul on the shelf, whereas Cousins has had stretches of great play before and it remains to be seen if he (and the Kings themselves!) can maintain this level of play.
On an unrelated note, I've posted a google doc of my "Isolated Rim Protection" metric here. The "average" against which players are measured is somewhat fluid, as the wider I make the sample to include more "stretch" and "smallball" 4s, naturally the median amount of contests at the rim decreases. That said, I feel good about the rankings of players within the sample much more than I vouch for the integer values, which might skew slightly high given the inclusion of players such as LeBron James and Wesley Johnson.
That said, the SportVU numbers continue to reveal interesting facets of the game, including more support for Cameron's observations about LeBron's lack of shot contesting effort this year. Additionally, my love of Kyle Korver continues to grow, as he is contesting more shots at the rim per game (4.1) than any other full time wing in the league. Also of interest is the fact that Draymond Green has been roughly as effective in contesting shots at the rim as Chris Bosh this season, on a per minute basis, #TeamDraymond scores out about as well as would a league average big man in terms of rim protection.
That said, the SportVU numbers continue to reveal interesting facets of the game, including more support for Cameron's observations about LeBron's lack of shot contesting effort this year. Additionally, my love of Kyle Korver continues to grow, as he is contesting more shots at the rim per game (4.1) than any other full time wing in the league. Also of interest is the fact that Draymond Green has been roughly as effective in contesting shots at the rim as Chris Bosh this season, on a per minute basis, #TeamDraymond scores out about as well as would a league average big man in terms of rim protection.
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