Physicality and Late Game Defensive Prowess
As you might have heard, the Minnesota Timberwolves are 1-12 in close games, and are floundering around .500 (currently 23-24) when their Pythagorean Record (what their record "should be" based on season long point differential) is 30-17. Generally speaking, large divergence from expected W-L is mostly down to luck. Very few players and teams have consistently shown an ability to out- or under-perform this measure, though one notable exception is Dirk Nowitzki, whose game translates to late game situations better than any player in recent memory. However in the case of the Timberwolves, there is something more than bad luck at work.
First of all, the actual record, 1-12 represents a degree of bad luck. A few shots go in here or there, a ref makes a obvious foul call and so on and they could easily be 4-9 or thereabouts. BUT, (and apologies to my Wolves' fan twitter who have heard this in extended rant form) there are some very real issues with the team. The problems created by Ricky Rubio's inability (and in my mind unwillingness to try) to score are well documented. Posting up Nikola Pekovic late in games is a problem. Kevin Love is not best suited to make plays in a late game isolation situation where the defense has a good idea not only who is shooting but when they are likely to shoot. Rubio, Kevin Martin and Corey Brewer lack the physical strength to play through the increased contact allowed in late game situations. And that's just on offense.
On defense, Love and Pek's inability to disrupt or switch on pick-and-rolls hurts, but more subtly is that fact that between Rubio (or JJ Barea when Rick Adelman decides to go against medical advice and play him over Rubio), Martin and Brewer's lack of strength also prevents them from taking advantage of the same leniency which victimizes them on the offensive end.
As an example of the kind of play the Wolves simply can't make defensively in the late game, Saturday's Raptors/Blazers tilt had a perfect example. Despite an extremely impressive comeback in the second half of the second game of a tough back-to-back, the Raptors were unable to get a look in the final seconds because Wes Matthews was able to use his strength to force a turnover on the final possession:
On defense, Love and Pek's inability to disrupt or switch on pick-and-rolls hurts, but more subtly is that fact that between Rubio (or JJ Barea when Rick Adelman decides to go against medical advice and play him over Rubio), Martin and Brewer's lack of strength also prevents them from taking advantage of the same leniency which victimizes them on the offensive end.
As an example of the kind of play the Wolves simply can't make defensively in the late game, Saturday's Raptors/Blazers tilt had a perfect example. Despite an extremely impressive comeback in the second half of the second game of a tough back-to-back, the Raptors were unable to get a look in the final seconds because Wes Matthews was able to use his strength to force a turnover on the final possession:
Wes is able to body DeMar DeRozan so that DDR can't turn the corner. This is likely a foul at any other point in the game:
But given the time and score, it's not really going to get called here. Again, the Wolves simply cannot make a similar play because their perimeter players are twigs. For example:
If Brewer is physically stronger, he bodies Green at the wing, and prevents him from even cutting into the open space for the shot.
As an aside, the beginning of the above play demonstrates the problem of Love's pick-and-roll defense in late game scenarios as Goran Dragic is easily able to turn the corner on Love's hedge:
So while yes the Timberwolves are unlucky to be under .500, there is plenty of reason to believe they aren't quite as good as their overall point differential might indicate. Further, assuming this roster is largely kept intact and moves towards playoff contention, these problems will only be exacerbated as they will be exploited even more fully by the class of teams the Wolves will meet in the playoffs.
Now that I've said something nice about Portland's perimeter defense, I should have something later in the week illustrating why that area represents an enormous Achilles Heel for their chances of true contention this season.
Speaking of my stuff being published elsewhere, I have a breakdown of Kyle Korver at Hickory-High today. I'm really happy with this one so please check it out!
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