The World is a Smaller Place, & They Care Very Much About Such Things

5/6/2014

Make or Miss Podcast #18: 1st Round Wrap; 2nd Round Preview

A day late in getting this out, but Rob and I recorded our 2nd round preview Sunday night (as should be clear when I say foolish things about the Clippers potentially no-showing Game 1. Oops.) This podcast is literally earth-shaking as we unintentionally recap the first round before moving on to the games still to come. Obviously, we recorded before today's news that Mark Jackson is out in Golden State. Audio & download after the jump.

make_or_miss_podcast_18_-_round_2_preview.mp3
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Also, in case you missed it, I wanted to plug the pod I recorded last week with Jacob Greenberg of The Diss one more time as Jacob had some excellent things to say on the entire Sterling affair and reactions surrounding it.

Though I haven't posted much here this week, I've written a fair few things elsewhere:

My first piece for Bleacher Report, talking about the tricks of the post up trade that Dwight Howard and Roy Hibbert can possibly learn from Al Jefferson's game this offseason

At Washington Post's Fancy Stats blog, I wrote about the conundrum of Brandan Wright and his amazing lack of playing time.
Also at Fancy Stats, a quick look at my favorite play from my favorite player for my favorite team to watch the season, the Nicolas Batum-Robin Lopez pick-and-roll and why that might be a key wrinkle against San Antonio in the second round.
At ClipperBlog, I wondered about which Matt Barnes we are going to get for the rest of the playoffs. I've also been appearing regularly on ClipperBlog Live if you want to see as well as hear me spout my nonsense.
Hopefully later this week I'll have a post, somewhere, about my favorite/least favorite subject: coaching, and our appreciation and evaluation thereof as fans.

1 Comment

Andrew McFarlane

5/15/2014 05:02:07 pm

Paul's WS/48 in the regular season is very high and of course that is the biggest reason for his team's regular season success. The problem is that his career WS/48 drops 23.2% in the playoffs (0.246 to 0.189)... So a 59-win, CP3-led regular season team is invariably not nearly as good come playoff time. His WS/48 actually drops 29% (0.246 to 0.174) if you just look at his playoff career with the Clippers. For this season alone, Paul's WS/48 was 0.270 in the regular season and 0.195 in the playoffs, or a 28% decline.

Isiah's career WS/48 in the regular season is 0.107, which increases 25.1% to 0.143 in the playoffs, thus giving his well-rounded, empowered team a nice boost come playoff time, instead of a seemingly mysterious decline.

This is the problem with both Paul's game and relying on small point guards in general to be the focal point of an offense - small point guards like Paul or Rose or Nash might be able to mimic the domination of larger players in the regular season (college), but they can't sustain that high a level of play in the playoffs (NBA) - ultimately, the hits in the playoffs slow them down. So if you rely on them that heavily in the regular season, your team's overall capability in the playoffs will invariably drop-off and you'll wonder why.

Contrastingly, bigger players absorb the hits better in the playoffs, and therefore do a better job of sustaining their numbers come postseason (as opposed to invariably declining). The idea that smaller players would have a tougher time taking the playoff hits was actually the conventional thinking in previous eras and accordingly, when Jordan became the only guard to ever lead his team to a championship without a scoring post big was and still is recognized as a massive, singular accomplishment (that he did 6 times). Although it doesn't seem like it, Durant will be the second guard (perimeter ballhandler) to do it.

People argue that Lebron, Rick Barry, Isiah and Chauncey also led teams to championships without scoring post bigs, but they actually did have scoring post bigs on their team (Bosh... James Edwards & Mark Aguirre... prime Rasheed). Of course Lebron himself is considered a big man in today's shorter NBA. And of course, both the stats of both Lebron and Durant are helped by today's spacing, defensive 3 seconds and more open paint area, optimal shot allocation that includes 3's, and restrictions on defensive physicality.

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The World is a Smaller Place, & They Care Very Much About Such Things

Make or Miss Podcast #18: 1st Round Wrap; 2nd Round Preview

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