Winning the One-on-One Battle But Losing the Match-up War
I'm a big believer in the NBA being a match-up league. Players' have preferred spots and skills, and to the extent particular opponents are good or bad at stopping or attacking those things, this interaction between discrete strengths and weaknesses determines much of who has good or bad performances. However, too often we get focused on only one half of a match-up and forget that mismatches can go both ways.
I posited this point as a key to the Suns' early successes this year; while Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe might not be an ideal defensive pairing with one having to guard a bulkier wing player, the Suns were making hay on offense because that same wing was unable to keep whichever of Dragic or Bledsoe he was guarding out of the lane.
Similarly, I've been skeptical of speculation that Miami is a likely suitor for Andrew Bynum. The reasoning behind this line of thought is that Bynum will help Miami compete with the Pacers' big lineups. My question is, why try? The Heat's defense operates by being faster and more athletic than the opposition, consciously giving up a little edge on the defensive glass in order to create turnovers and facebreak opportunities the other way, where with LeBron and D-Wade, they are simply devastating. Why change that to play the same style that Indiana has perfected, only doing it worse?
And of course the classic example of "matching up" backfiring is this year's Knicks. After great success last season with a small, shooting-heavy lineup featuring Carmelo Anthony as a small 4, Mike Woodson has returned to a more traditional "two big man" style of play. Which has contrived to make New York a subpar version of Generic NBA Team. "Melo at the 4" is like blood in the water near a pack of sharks in Knicks blog/twitterland.
It's not exactly Sun Tzu, but the Art of NBA takeaway is that the team which chooses the style at which the game will be played has an advantage. A key difference between good coaches and bad is that the better coaches rarely concede their team's identity for the sake of "match-ups" as such a concession mean's the battle is being fought on ground of the opponent's choosing.
Similarly, I've been skeptical of speculation that Miami is a likely suitor for Andrew Bynum. The reasoning behind this line of thought is that Bynum will help Miami compete with the Pacers' big lineups. My question is, why try? The Heat's defense operates by being faster and more athletic than the opposition, consciously giving up a little edge on the defensive glass in order to create turnovers and facebreak opportunities the other way, where with LeBron and D-Wade, they are simply devastating. Why change that to play the same style that Indiana has perfected, only doing it worse?
And of course the classic example of "matching up" backfiring is this year's Knicks. After great success last season with a small, shooting-heavy lineup featuring Carmelo Anthony as a small 4, Mike Woodson has returned to a more traditional "two big man" style of play. Which has contrived to make New York a subpar version of Generic NBA Team. "Melo at the 4" is like blood in the water near a pack of sharks in Knicks blog/twitterland.
It's not exactly Sun Tzu, but the Art of NBA takeaway is that the team which chooses the style at which the game will be played has an advantage. A key difference between good coaches and bad is that the better coaches rarely concede their team's identity for the sake of "match-ups" as such a concession mean's the battle is being fought on ground of the opponent's choosing.
An example of losing the war in pursuit of a smaller victory occurred in Sunday's win by the Lakers over the Raptors. Up until today's 26 minutes in a loss in Charlotte, Chuck Hayes had not played over 20 minutes in a game all season until yesterday, when Dwayne Casey used him for most of the 4th quarter at the expense of Jonas Valanciunas. The rationale was obvious: Pau Gasol was having a nice game, getting post buckets like these two third quarter examples:
and again from the opposite side of the floor:
Hayes' specialty is, despite his lack of height, post defense. And on first glance, he certainly did the job. Unlike his match-up with Valanciunas, where Gasol was able to get to areas where he could make short hook shots, Hayes' lower body strength and leverage forced Pau into longer range and more difficult looks:
To compare side-by -side, look how much farther Pau is shooting vs. Hayes than against Jonas:
So based on this data point, you would think Hayes helped Toronto and the Raps would have lost by even more without him. However, a look at the wider context gives the lie to this narrative. Though Gasol had a decent game vs. Valanciunas, he only scored 10 points on the 12 possessions he used head-to-head; decent but hardly dominant. Additionally, in the 4th quarter it was not Gasol who hurt the Raptors, but Nick Young going the full Swaggy.
And Toronto's problems came on the other end, where Hayes' status as a more or less total non-threat allowed Pau or Jordan Hill to wreak havoc with Toronto's offensive sets:
And Toronto's problems came on the other end, where Hayes' status as a more or less total non-threat allowed Pau or Jordan Hill to wreak havoc with Toronto's offensive sets:
The complete lack of respect and attention paid to Hayes was never more evident than on this late game play where Toronto tries to clear a side of the floor for DeRozan to iso:
Gasol is in position to double and challenge DeRozan before DeMar even catches the ball, as he is certain Hayes is not a part of the offensive plan:
So while Hayes DID do an excellent job on defense, holding Gasol to 2 points on 5 possessions, its not completely clear whether his presence was a net positive in the 4th quarter, as perhaps evidenced by the fact that the Raptors were outscored by 7 in that period with Hayes on the floor.
Oddly enough, today's game against the Bobcats serves as the perfect counterpoint. In that contest, Al Jefferson used 11 possessions against Hayes and 11 against either Jonas or Patrick Patterson. He scored 8 vs. Hayes and 13 against the other Raps, but unlike the Lakers, the Kemba Walker -less Bobbers had no Nick Young-like figure to pick up that scoring slack. The succession of stops including a number of Jefferson misses and turnovers, combined with some unexpected offense by Hayes allowed the Raps to almost make up a 30 point deficit (with Kyle Lowry missing a free throw to tie late on). So in addition to his defensive contributions being more important, Hayes also made himself useful on the offensive end down the stretch, contributing to Hayes' +15 in 15 second half minutes.
This is hardly the only example of coaches, fans or commentators only seeing one half of a given match-up. There is often a clamor for players such as Steve Novak to play more for the Raptors. The problem is Novak helps both offenses; while his shooting is obviously elite, the list of players he can credibly guard is very small. No matter how much he adds on offense, it's not enough if he gives up more on defense. And as Hayes against the Lakers shows, the reverse can is also be true.
Oddly enough, today's game against the Bobcats serves as the perfect counterpoint. In that contest, Al Jefferson used 11 possessions against Hayes and 11 against either Jonas or Patrick Patterson. He scored 8 vs. Hayes and 13 against the other Raps, but unlike the Lakers, the Kemba Walker -less Bobbers had no Nick Young-like figure to pick up that scoring slack. The succession of stops including a number of Jefferson misses and turnovers, combined with some unexpected offense by Hayes allowed the Raps to almost make up a 30 point deficit (with Kyle Lowry missing a free throw to tie late on). So in addition to his defensive contributions being more important, Hayes also made himself useful on the offensive end down the stretch, contributing to Hayes' +15 in 15 second half minutes.
This is hardly the only example of coaches, fans or commentators only seeing one half of a given match-up. There is often a clamor for players such as Steve Novak to play more for the Raptors. The problem is Novak helps both offenses; while his shooting is obviously elite, the list of players he can credibly guard is very small. No matter how much he adds on offense, it's not enough if he gives up more on defense. And as Hayes against the Lakers shows, the reverse can is also be true.
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