Ricky Rubio and the Ripple Effect (Point Guard O Series)
Last night in twitter convo with Alex from Gothic Ginobili, he pointed me to this post concerning the best game theoretic way to maximize the value of an offensive possession. (Warning, wonky!) A subtle point of the post is that even if a given option in a play isn't an especially effective means of scoring, having that option as a threat at all increases the overall play's effectiveness.
I made the joke that the author if that post Incepted the a Wolves offense by putting the idea of Ricky Rubio, non-scoring threat, into our minds And then we collectively willed it into being. So I wanted to look at how Rubio's unwillingness and/or inability to look for his own offense hamstrings the Wolves.
First of all is the obvious stuff - Rubio's lack of shooting allows his defender to sag on isos and go underneath pick and rolls. This not only limits Rubio's ability to penetrate, but also cuts down his passing angles both on the perimeter:
First of all is the obvious stuff - Rubio's lack of shooting allows his defender to sag on isos and go underneath pick and rolls. This not only limits Rubio's ability to penetrate, but also cuts down his passing angles both on the perimeter:
And off the dribble drive:
And not just in terms of turnovers, the lack of respect defenses have to give Rubio also hinders the ability of the other parts of the play to function:
Now, Rubio did well on this play to see the opportunity to get the ball to Nikola Pekovic in a decent spot (Pek is a decent post up player - .86 PPP on the year), but with a little more aggression, Rubio could get him a great look some of the time (Pek is one of the very best players in the league as a PNR finisher at 1.15 PPP). And applying the lessons of the Gravity and Levity post linked above, this means that Rubio has to be more aggressive looking to shoot, even though his shots as a PNR ball handler are "bad" (.71 PPP, though that is depressed greatly by the high TO rate brought about by his overpassing in these spots), Rubio shooting half the time is still better for the offense if this assertiveness allows Pek PNR touches as opposed to post touches.
In the one case, the Wovles get Pek's .86 PPP in the post. However, in the 50/50 scenario, they average a much more robust .93 PPP across all possessions, which is good for any possession and great for a half court possession. Simply by making himself a threat, Rubio has increased the offensive output significantly.
Finally, as Rob and I discussed yesterday on the pod, this is in my opinion a major reason for the Wolves offensive struggles at the end of close games. Against Dallas, a few possessions before DOH ED MALLOY-gate, Sam Dalembert is again able to blanket Pek because he knows Rubio doesn't want to shoot:
In the one case, the Wovles get Pek's .86 PPP in the post. However, in the 50/50 scenario, they average a much more robust .93 PPP across all possessions, which is good for any possession and great for a half court possession. Simply by making himself a threat, Rubio has increased the offensive output significantly.
Finally, as Rob and I discussed yesterday on the pod, this is in my opinion a major reason for the Wolves offensive struggles at the end of close games. Against Dallas, a few possessions before DOH ED MALLOY-gate, Sam Dalembert is again able to blanket Pek because he knows Rubio doesn't want to shoot:
So even though much has (rightly) been made of Rubio's historically bad shooting so far this season (and indeed over his career), his unwillingness to continue looking to score might just be hurting the team more.
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