Keeper Watch: Timofey Mozgov
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In Putin's Russia, ball rebound YOU! On thelast pod, we teased it a bit, but one of our topics for next time is "guys we think should play more." To keep it away from obvious topics, we're going to try and steer well clear of the open and obvious coaching mistakes in terms of lineup decisions, whether it's Kendrick Perkins getting minutes over Nick Collison/Steven Adams, or even Draymond Green vs. Harrison Barnes.
But one example we will surely talk about is the curious decision of Brian Shaw to start J.J. Hickson and continue to give him the bulk of the minutes over Timofey Mozgov. I brought this up briefly when talking about coaching peeves the other week, and I don't want to dwell on the ways in which Moz is better than Hickson too much, because the underlying point I want to make is that Mozgov has really turned himself into a tidy player.
In the NBA's public consciousness, Mozgov is of course best remembered for nearly killing Ralph Lawler, and beyond that as a throw in to the Carmelo Anthony trade or maybe even as the floppy haired galoot who was the latest overhyped Knicks prospect.
But he's much more than an afterthought now. Or at least he should be.
In the NBA's public consciousness, Mozgov is of course best remembered for nearly killing Ralph Lawler, and beyond that as a throw in to the Carmelo Anthony trade or maybe even as the floppy haired galoot who was the latest overhyped Knicks prospect.
But he's much more than an afterthought now. Or at least he should be.
The Numbers
For a Denver team in dire need of interior presence (ranking in the bottom ten in conceding points at the rim and generally undersized), he has been a definite standout on that fronts, especially compared to the other bigs on the roster. In the latest iteration of my Isolated Rim Protection numbers, through games of last Sunday (1/12/14) he is by far the most effective of the Nuggets bigs, and in fact the only one above league average (not JaVale McGee is not included as he hasn't played enough to qualify):
| Player | Opp FGP at Rim | Contests/36 | AdjS36OA | AdjS/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timofey Mozgov | 45.70% | 11.0 | 2.28 | 1.26 |
| Darrell Arthur | 47.40% | 6.7 | -0.52 | -0.26 |
| Kenneth Faried | 53.20% | 6.7 | -1.26 | -0.84 |
| JJ Hickson | 56.30% | 8.0 | -1.20 | -0.87 |
The final two columns reflect points saved that a hypothetical league average big man would not have on a per 36 minute and per game basis. To put the numbers another way, for every 10 minutes Hickson plays over Mozgov, Denver concedes one more point at the rim. Now this is an isolated value (Hickson is a slightly better rebounder, and turns the ball over somewhat less), but still a significant upgrade: Mozgov is just outside the top 10 rim protectors on per minute basis, performing comparably to Serge Ibaka or Chris Andersen on this front, while Hickson's performance puts him alongside Ryan Anderson.
In addition to his interior presence, Mozgov is an excellent defender of the Pick-and-Roll, currently ranked 5th among all players in terms of guarding the roll man, per Synergy sports. Despite his size he is nimble enough to hedge over high screens, and is equally adept at dropping below the foul line to contain drivers which he can deter with his shot blocking presence.
Moving beyond individual stats, Denver performs nearly 14 pts/100 possessions better defensively with Mozgov on the floor rather than off, and though they perform slightly worse offensively, the team goes from a 3/100 deficit with him off to a 6/100 advantage with Mozgov on the floor. Of course on/off numbers are notoriously messy, and Mozgov assuredly benefits from playing more against second units, but the comparison with Hickson is pretty stark - Denver has performed a net 16/100 better with Moz on and Hickson off the floor than the reverse. Extrapolated over a full game, that's roughly the difference in performance so far this season between Indiana and Brooklyn!
In addition to his interior presence, Mozgov is an excellent defender of the Pick-and-Roll, currently ranked 5th among all players in terms of guarding the roll man, per Synergy sports. Despite his size he is nimble enough to hedge over high screens, and is equally adept at dropping below the foul line to contain drivers which he can deter with his shot blocking presence.
Moving beyond individual stats, Denver performs nearly 14 pts/100 possessions better defensively with Mozgov on the floor rather than off, and though they perform slightly worse offensively, the team goes from a 3/100 deficit with him off to a 6/100 advantage with Mozgov on the floor. Of course on/off numbers are notoriously messy, and Mozgov assuredly benefits from playing more against second units, but the comparison with Hickson is pretty stark - Denver has performed a net 16/100 better with Moz on and Hickson off the floor than the reverse. Extrapolated over a full game, that's roughly the difference in performance so far this season between Indiana and Brooklyn!
Skill Improvement
Though turnovers are one of Mozgov's main drawbacks, he has improved on this front to the point of being a surprisingly effective offensive player both in the post and as a roll man in pick and roll situations. One are of definite improvement has been his hands. Early in his career both in New York and Denver, he had a frustrating tendency to make the right cut, but be unable to catch and finish as this example from late in the 2011-12 season shows:
Even though he shows clever footwork and surprising agility for a man of his massive size, none of that matters if he can't catch the ball cleanly. Contrast this with a play from December:
Not only does he catch the ball cleanly on the move, but he has the balance and finesse to make a play towards the goal without putting the ball back on the floor where smaller players are waiting to pilfer. Though only getting about one chance per game, Mozgov is scoring at a well above average clip on these attempts, and has shown a great feel for pivoting and rolling into space to allow Denver's guards easy passing angles as in this recent play where he drew a foul:
The key to the above being Mozgov's recognition that Andrew Bogut has not stepped up to guard Ty Lawson's dribble, creating a large pocket for Lawson to drop a dime if he slips the screen early:
In the post, Mozgov has always had a nice touch with a turnaround jumper over either shoulder which he releases high enough to get over most contests as well as an effective short range lefty jump hook. Prior to this year, he's rarely been allowed to showcase these skills, having scored exactly one post up basket all of last season. The season before he was a little more active, but not especially efficient, with his biggest problem aside from turnovers being his tendency to get pushed off the block to about 10 feet where the jump hook especially became more of a heave.
This year, he appears to have added enough lower body strength to hold his position on the low block and has also added a right handed jump hook to his arsenal. Though his passing from the post remains an issue, (he averages barely one assist per 36 minutes on the floor) Mozgov is well above league average in terms of scoring from the post with his .93 points per position ranking him 31st among qualifying players.
Future Outlook
Mozgov's 3 year, $14 million contract surely raised some eyebrows when it was announced, but it now looks like a potential bargain for Denver with Moz locked up through age 29 at a very reasonable rate for a plus-defensive, offensively competent center. Even in the worst case scenario of Mozgov completely losing his effectiveness, the third year is a team option, making him a potential expiring next season. Unfortunately, Denver has a logjam at center, with guaranteed money tied up in both Hickson and McGee. Both of these players will be harder to move than would Mozgov, either due to badness (Hickson) or permanent residence on Shaqtin' a Fool while pulling an 8-figure salary (McGee). For this reason, Mozgov could be an extremely attractive trade piece should the Nuggets decide to go that rout. The cynic in me suggests that they would prefer to move Hickson, as his continued starting slot and primacy in the playing time queue could simply be to showcase him and hope another team can take him off Denver's hands.
Regardless, it seems likely Mozgov will be a productive player somewhere for the next several seasons, and could even break out if given a larger role, much as the very comparable Robin Lopez (an extremely good rim protector who is surprisingly decent on offense especially in the PnR) has done the last two years.
Regardless, it seems likely Mozgov will be a productive player somewhere for the next several seasons, and could even break out if given a larger role, much as the very comparable Robin Lopez (an extremely good rim protector who is surprisingly decent on offense especially in the PnR) has done the last two years.
Since I talked a little about prospects and the draft in my last post, I figured I should plug a friends new blog, Dean on the Draft. His first post is up on the Novakian Doug McDermott of Creighton. Dean and I don't always see eye-to-eye on all things NBA, but he's a smart guy who's been doing a ton of study of this year's crop of prospects, so give him a read.
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