Keeper Watch (Intro and Miles Plumlee)
What, me? The great thing about writing about the NBA is that there are 30 teams and ten times that many things to write about. The terrible thing about writing about the NBA is that there are 30 teams...So, obviously the only way I'm going to complete the series on the Suns lackluster pick-and-roll coverage is to roll it into what I had planned anyway: a series of posts about young players who might or might not be long term keepers in NBA rotations.
I'm not planning on looking at lottery guys, and least not recent ones. I don't need to go on and on about why Michael Carter-Williams is awesome and Anthony Bennett looks like a bust so far. I'm more interested in some of the more middle class players: Jordan Crawford, Khris Middleton, Jordan Hamilton, Reggie Jackson. Guys like that. Even best case none of the guys are ever going to sniff an all-star game or a max contract. But you need more than just one or two stars to win in the NBA. I might also cover guys who have been around a while who might or might not be stepping up their games as they approach the end of their original rookie deals. Evan Turner has had a nice start to the season, is he doing anything unexpected or is he just shooting the ball great? What happens to Derrick Williams in Sacramento and is Wes Johnson finding a long-term niche in LA? It's worth paying attention to the guys who might become rotation guys for a contender, perhaps even becoming foundation pieces for an up-and-comer in best case scenarios.
As might be obvious, the first guy getting a look is Miles Plumlee. I spent some time last week on Phoenix's struggles in defending PnR, and came to the conclusion that Plumlee is probably their best bet to help shore up this area. He has some struggles early in the season, but has for the most part been pretty decent in his second year despite playing fewer than 60 minutes as a rookie.
Pick and Roll Coverage and Help Defense
Unlike the Morrii twins, Plumlee appears to "get it" in terms of defending the pick-and-roll. One of the more noticeable things about his contribution in this area won't show up on the page, because it's audible. He is already a great talker - listen closely to any Suns broadcast and you can clearly hear him making coverage calls early and loudly any time his man moves to set a ballscreen. As many of Phoenix's PnR breakdowns appear to occur when the ball defender and the screen defender are running two different coverages or schemes, ensuring this doesn't happen already gives Plumlee a head start on helping Phoenix's defense.
As far as his actual defensive movement, it's usually pretty go0d. He can struggle at times versus teams which run some misdirection into the PnR such as Portland (or San Antonio, even though he recovers to block Duncan on that play):
As far as his actual defensive movement, it's usually pretty go0d. He can struggle at times versus teams which run some misdirection into the PnR such as Portland (or San Antonio, even though he recovers to block Duncan on that play):
However, in general, his technique is solid as he squares doesn't allow guards to turn the corner or allow too big a gap between himself and the screen to allow for pocket passes or "snake dribbles" back between the screener and the basket:
His biggest flaw in PnR coverage is at times being slightly reluctant to close out on pick-and-pop shooters, though giving up the midrange is hardly the worst sin a player can commit.
In help defense and rotation situations Plumlee is generally well-schooled as one would expect from a former Duke player and graduate of Pacers Academy. He is occasionally prone to ball-watching as in the Portland example above. That said, he is extremely active and hard-working. Plumlee leads the league in opponent's shots he contests at the rim, averaging 10.8 per game, while being the only player averaging 10 or more contests to play fewer than 30MPG. Of the shots he does contest, he is slightly above average, ranking 20th (out of 54 big men) in terms of opponents FG% on those shots, and is tied for 9th in the league in BPG, and does it all without fouling very much (98th in the league in fouls per game). Unsurprisingly, given these attributes and the general struggles of the rest of Phoenix's bigs, he leads the team in individual D rating (not my favorite stat across teams, but possibly instructive within a team), scoring several points/100 higher than any other Suns regular.
In help defense and rotation situations Plumlee is generally well-schooled as one would expect from a former Duke player and graduate of Pacers Academy. He is occasionally prone to ball-watching as in the Portland example above. That said, he is extremely active and hard-working. Plumlee leads the league in opponent's shots he contests at the rim, averaging 10.8 per game, while being the only player averaging 10 or more contests to play fewer than 30MPG. Of the shots he does contest, he is slightly above average, ranking 20th (out of 54 big men) in terms of opponents FG% on those shots, and is tied for 9th in the league in BPG, and does it all without fouling very much (98th in the league in fouls per game). Unsurprisingly, given these attributes and the general struggles of the rest of Phoenix's bigs, he leads the team in individual D rating (not my favorite stat across teams, but possibly instructive within a team), scoring several points/100 higher than any other Suns regular.
Individual Defense
Oddly for a younger player, Plumlee's biggest struggles on the defensive end seem to come in the simpler situations. Whereas in his pick and roll coverage he does well to stay under control and not give away driving angles while recovering to his man on pick-and-pops, he shows a tendency to be too aggressive in more standard one-on-one isolation situations. For how well he can move laterally in general, he gets beat off the dribble with alarming frequency in isolation situations, mostly because he simply tries to get too close to the ballhandler:
He is guilty of this over aggression both out on the floor as above, but also when his man turns and faces from the post:
Perhaps as he gains more playing experience, he will learn to respect the skills of NBA big men more than he had to in college but at present, he appears all too willing to "get up into" the offensive player as if that will force panicked decisions, which is generally not the case for NBA big men who receive post up chances. Despite this bit over-exuberance, he is roughly middle-of-the pack in one-on-one situations, but as with most bigs in the modern post-averse NBA, his real defensive value comes in PnR and rotation situations, in which he is quite adept.
Offense
Given his defensive prowess and the wide array of offensive options Phoenix has, Plumlee's offense is largely a bonus. That said, he is a serviceable scorer in the post, with a solid left shoulder jump hook from either block. His face up game and jump shot are still a bit balky, but he plays well within his limitations and limits his turnovers to an acceptable level. He does not score in transition as much as might be expected from the combination of the Suns run and gun style and his speed. However, his roll as the primary rim protector probably means he simply is unable to get out on the break much himself. In the pick-and-roll game, he is an enthusiastic roll man, however, this enthusiasm often leads to him setting "phantom" screens which neither give the ball-handler an advantage nor an angle to hit Plumlee for a shot at the rim. His biggest drawback offensively (and quite probably the reason he starts but does not finish most games for Phoenix) is his abysmal free throw shooting, current sitting under 50%. Alongside the need to take a step back from facing offensive players discussed above, this is the most obvious facet of his game needing immediate improvement.
Summary
While his offensive game can best be described as "work-in-progress", this should be more than sufficient for him to have a long career if he continues his improvement and play on the defensive end. While the Morrii are getting a great deal of the plaudits for their scoring exploits in the early season (especially Markieff), in the longer term, Plumlee's solidity in the paint makes him a far more likely candidate to be a major piece for Phoenix when this iteration of the Suns fully matures. He will never be an All-star, or probably even a household name, but he's a guy you can build on.
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