Little Things Make a Big Difference
Still the Truth Since I stopped following college ball much (the one-and-done rule and the overly high ratio of physicality to skill has robbed that version of the game of much of it's aesthetic appeal), I don't have a ton to say about this year's crop of prospects, other than I LOVE Joel Embiid. However, as a sort of meta-commentary on the prospecting and projecting, I do want to say that I think people are focusing far too much on "measurables."
Certainly vertical leap, standing reach, three point % and steal rate are excellent data points for evaluating these guys coming in, but one of the things sometimes being overlooked is "can he play?" Over the years many guys have been drafted as workout wonders, or sheer physical specimens who never really work out because they can't. Names like Joe Alexander and Tyrus Thomas should come to mind.
The point being, it's not simply who can jump the highest or run the fastest (else Andre Miller would have been out of the league when he was just 23 years old in 1979), basketball is about decision making on the fly. My favorite current example is Paul Pierce. Compared to NBA wings, he's never been particularly fast or explosive. Certainly he has good size and strength, but that alone shouldn't have been enough to make him a surefire Hall of Famer and a top 10-15 player in the league in his prime.
One of Pierce's most hated moves was drawing fouls with pump faked jump shots. (Yes, I'm going to talk about that particular version of Paul Pierce in the past tense. Not walking back through that door if I start to wonder whether Mirza Teletovic should start getting more of your minutes). People often complained that he "leaned in" to get these calls, but really he was making a small yet crafty move to ensure that he was drawing fouls instead of no calls or even offensive fouls. Here's an example from the 2009 Playoffs:
The point being, it's not simply who can jump the highest or run the fastest (else Andre Miller would have been out of the league when he was just 23 years old in 1979), basketball is about decision making on the fly. My favorite current example is Paul Pierce. Compared to NBA wings, he's never been particularly fast or explosive. Certainly he has good size and strength, but that alone shouldn't have been enough to make him a surefire Hall of Famer and a top 10-15 player in the league in his prime.
One of Pierce's most hated moves was drawing fouls with pump faked jump shots. (Yes, I'm going to talk about that particular version of Paul Pierce in the past tense. Not walking back through that door if I start to wonder whether Mirza Teletovic should start getting more of your minutes). People often complained that he "leaned in" to get these calls, but really he was making a small yet crafty move to ensure that he was drawing fouls instead of no calls or even offensive fouls. Here's an example from the 2009 Playoffs:
Now did Pierce like to step to the side or even lean forward to ensure contact on this type of play? Absolutely, but that little step to the side and back assured that the defender would be jumping towards him, allowing him to "draw" rather than "create" contact.
So how is this relevant? The specifics of what PP is doing above are merely illustrative that it's a game of the mind as much as the body. One of the concepts I've tended to focus on is time, and the intelligent use thereof, and while usually that means moving quickly and with a purpose (such as Portland or Phoenix do and Cleveland does not), sometimes it means taking your time.
Which brings me to my point. Good offensive execution means making the defense guard multiple options. That doesn't just mean showing them looks and hoping the defense fails to react properly, players have to be ready to make the defender make a play. One area this comes up often is in pick-and-roll play.
The Washington Wizards run a lot of pick-and-roll, but don't do so very effectively. I think this is in large part due to John Wall. Wall is a fantastic talent who does many great things on the court, but he still in many ways has not figured out how to use his greatest strength, his speed, in the half court. This shows up in him taking an avalanche of mid range J's in the pick-and-roll. To revisit and example I used to look at Kevin Love's defense, here he is settling for a jumper:
Which brings me to my point. Good offensive execution means making the defense guard multiple options. That doesn't just mean showing them looks and hoping the defense fails to react properly, players have to be ready to make the defender make a play. One area this comes up often is in pick-and-roll play.
The Washington Wizards run a lot of pick-and-roll, but don't do so very effectively. I think this is in large part due to John Wall. Wall is a fantastic talent who does many great things on the court, but he still in many ways has not figured out how to use his greatest strength, his speed, in the half court. This shows up in him taking an avalanche of mid range J's in the pick-and-roll. To revisit and example I used to look at Kevin Love's defense, here he is settling for a jumper:
In this play, Love WAS in pretty good decision. But who wins in a speed match up between John Wall and Kevin Love? As a counter example, here is Jeff Teague facing a similar situation and getting a far different result:
Unlike the above, Teague made Drummond actually stop him instead of assuming that Drummond simply being in the spot would be enough.
Similarly, defensive schemes call for big to move and recover so much that simply waiting might be enough to create an opening. Another example from the Hawks defeating "Ice" coverage on a PnR:
Similarly, defensive schemes call for big to move and recover so much that simply waiting might be enough to create an opening. Another example from the Hawks defeating "Ice" coverage on a PnR:
Neither of these plays would show up on stop watch or a tape, so remember when watching your favorite prospect that you aren't just looking for how fast, high or strong, but also how in control and how smart.
Completely unrelated, my first post is up on Raptors Watch, previewing the Wolves/Raps tilt.
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