Working To Rediscover An Offensive Identity With the Pacers
Apparently, the Pacers are done for. Local columnists are sharpening their knives. Zach Lowe has weighed in. The team is squabbling internally. Their net efficiency is more than 10 points per 100 worse since the All-Star break. At this rate they'll be lucky to get out of the first round. That is, if you buy the prevailing narratives.
I do not. Indiana is obviously scuffling, and has been for a decent interval. But so what? They don't play a game that really counts for at least two weeks, and they showed over the first 50+ games with essentially the same rotation they could play at an elite level. And that matters. For confirmation that the Pacers maybe could still be fine, my Hickory High colleague Jacob Frankel had some intriguing data-based analysis:
The historical data says that sample size trumps everything, and that if the Pacers were a really good team for two thirds of the season, they’re probably a pretty good team. But again, this sort of slide for a playoff team is unprecedented and how Indiana fares in the playoffs might not fit the pattern of the past. Only two more weeks until these questions can begin to be answered.
In looking at them in a more qualitative fashion, the general consensus is that the Indy offense is where the problem lies. Since they All-Star break, they are 29th in ORtg, ahead of only Philly (or as Lowe puts it, last among NBA offenses.) Why this is might be the case has been the genesis of much speculation, both in the media and among the Pacers themselves.
Personally, I think it's a combination of several things. Some guys are just playing worse, across multiple areas. For example, Paul George is shooting worse, in part because he's taking some tougher shots. I've talked about this numerous times on the podcast, but his handle isn't good enough for him to "probe" the defense - instead he's much more effective, making quick, and decisive one or two-dribble moves. This over-dribbling isn't necessarily a s result of selfishness either. For a struggling offense, it's easy to imagine turning down a perfectly reasonable shot to "find a better one" even though the offense has already succeeded in creating what should be a good look.
On the other hand, as Mike Prada brilliantly broke down earlier this week, there have been some structural issues with the Indiana offense. Corners have been cut, screens aren't being set with the same effectiveness, cuts aren't executed with the same alacrity and so on. In a way, this turns to Pacers into the inverse of the San Antonio offense. When the Spurs really get humming, each possession takes a small defensive error and exploits it in a way to create even larger gaps. In a perfect mirror-image, the Pacers are allowing one missed screen or late pass to snowball into worse and worse looks and repeating. To this end, Vogel has exhorted his troops both in the media and on the sidelines (and one presumes in practice and shootarounds) to screen harder and cut more sharply.
Well, on the one game sample of facing Detroit, the message might be getting through, even if everything isn't perfect just yet.
Personally, I think it's a combination of several things. Some guys are just playing worse, across multiple areas. For example, Paul George is shooting worse, in part because he's taking some tougher shots. I've talked about this numerous times on the podcast, but his handle isn't good enough for him to "probe" the defense - instead he's much more effective, making quick, and decisive one or two-dribble moves. This over-dribbling isn't necessarily a s result of selfishness either. For a struggling offense, it's easy to imagine turning down a perfectly reasonable shot to "find a better one" even though the offense has already succeeded in creating what should be a good look.
On the other hand, as Mike Prada brilliantly broke down earlier this week, there have been some structural issues with the Indiana offense. Corners have been cut, screens aren't being set with the same effectiveness, cuts aren't executed with the same alacrity and so on. In a way, this turns to Pacers into the inverse of the San Antonio offense. When the Spurs really get humming, each possession takes a small defensive error and exploits it in a way to create even larger gaps. In a perfect mirror-image, the Pacers are allowing one missed screen or late pass to snowball into worse and worse looks and repeating. To this end, Vogel has exhorted his troops both in the media and on the sidelines (and one presumes in practice and shootarounds) to screen harder and cut more sharply.
Well, on the one game sample of facing Detroit, the message might be getting through, even if everything isn't perfect just yet.
Execution
One of the items Prada focused on was Indiana's poor screen setting and/or use of ball screens. For example, on this play David West and George Hill make poor efforts to screen Jarrett Jack and to use the space created by any screen respectively.
West doesn't get good contact on Jack, and rolls too early, while West never looks to turn the corner and draw the defense in the process of using the screen. Wednesday night, it wasn't perfect, but the Pacers clearly made an effort to make contact and use ball-screens a little bit better.
West doesn't get all of Kyle Singler on this screen, but he gets enough to force Singler to change his path. Similarly, Lance Stephenson doesn't exactly explode around the pick, but he makes he comes off with enough purpose to freeze Greg Monroe for just long enough for West to pop to the elbow and roll to the basket when Monroe makes an ill-advised steal attempt.
Similarly, on the very next possession West does get a solid shot on Singler.
Similarly, on the very next possession West does get a solid shot on Singler.
Though he and Stephenson don't make the perfect read (see below), this is better.
Continuity
A staple of non-functioning NBA offense is the inability offer continuous threats to the defense. Earlier in the year, I compared the continuity offered by Portland's sets to the lack thereof in Cleveland. Though sometimes teams with sufficient individual talent (to a degree Golden State and much more so in the case of Oklahoma City) can get away with falling into isolation or random motion offense fairly early in the shot clock, Indiana does not have the one-on-one talent to successfully fall back on guys simply "making plays."
So, it was refreshing on Wednesday to see them run through some sets with multiple options which flowed somewhat naturally. For example:
So, it was refreshing on Wednesday to see them run through some sets with multiple options which flowed somewhat naturally. For example:
Even though the end result is George Hill getting blocked at the rim, the Pacers still generated 5 different options in 6 seconds utilizing all 5 players:
It looks simple when done correctly, but if it was simple, every team would do it every time. Good to see the Pacers getting back to some of this.
Quickness
As mentioned above, one of the biggest issues I think George is dealing with is trying to make the perfect play instead of the simple, correct play. Here are two examples from the recent contest versus Miami, where he turns down pretty good looks to try and "probe" the defense. On the first he comes off a pin down and is open for an elbow J immediately on the catch, but instead tries to square up and breakdown LeBron James, resulting in an extremely tough shot:
On the second, George receives the ball on the wing with Mario Chalmers closing out late. Instead of simply rising and firing, George drives into the teeth of the defense (where he is finishing not especially well - George is currently 65th of the 96 players attempting at least 3.5 shots per game in the restricted area). He's trying to do the right thing, but actually working himself into a tougher spot by not taking the look that presents itself organically.
Neither of the shots he turned down would have been ideal, as there would have been late closeouts on each. but especially the second, is Chalmers really going to affect George's shot if he elevates? Against Detroit, George seemed more willing to take these good-but-not-great shots the offense generated, rather than attempting to dribble into traffic:
Though Singler closes out hard, for a shooter of George's caliber this is an open look, and one that is generated out of Indian's offensive scheme with Singler being forced to choose between digging down on West or staying home on George. Similarly, here George rises and fires over a late close out:
This isn't to say George's worst, hero-ballish habits completely vanished. There were still multiple times where he tried to dribble Josh Smith to death, with somewhat predictable results:
But a few of these per game are probably livable, whereas if this represents the majority of Indiana's offense (as it has a fair amount over this post All-Star swoon), it's a major problem.
Timing
Probably unsurprisingly for a team which has experienced as much discombobulation of late as have the Pacers, the timing and decision making wasn't totally perfect. There were numerous examples of Indiana executing a play decently well, only to have the final pass or read just be a little off or a little late. For example, on this short pick-and-roll play, West is a fraction late cutting for the pass from Roy Hibbert:
Earlier in the season, when the offense was functioning better, this connection between Hibbert and West was quick and automatic:
Similarly, in the middle pick-and-roll play between Stephenson and West illustrated above, West is too content to pick and pop, even against Monroe's poor hedge which leaves him an open lane to the basket:
That said, West overwhelming looks to pop, rather than roll, after setting ball-screens this season (of his 99 made baskets as the screener in a pick-and-roll, there are about 5 which involve him rolling directly to the basket instead of popping for either a midrange J or a show and go.) This predictability probably doesn't help Indiana's offense, as defenses know they can attack the ball-handler with traps with the worst outcome from their point of view being a West 17-footer, which isn't that bad!
So all is not yet fixed after one win, especially against a disastrous Detroit team. But signs are still evident the Pacers are beginning to play their way out of this offensive malaise. It might not be fixed this week, or even by the first round of the playoffs. But if Indiana continues to progress on some of these issues, and as I've been saying all along. They'll. Be. Fine.
So all is not yet fixed after one win, especially against a disastrous Detroit team. But signs are still evident the Pacers are beginning to play their way out of this offensive malaise. It might not be fixed this week, or even by the first round of the playoffs. But if Indiana continues to progress on some of these issues, and as I've been saying all along. They'll. Be. Fine.
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